Aktien sind Optionsscheine auf künftigen Profit kapitalistischer Unternehmen.
Wie das Schaubild aus dem „Economist“ (Aktienpreise in Relation zu den Unternehmensgewinnen der 500 größten US-Unternehmen) zeigt, bildet der Unternehmensprofit die Schwerkraft, die abgehobene Aktienkurse immer wieder zum Boden zurückholt.
Aus dem Schaubild geht auch hervor, dass die
US-Aktienkurse von 1968 bis heute die Kursentwicklung von 1900 bis 1932
nachbilden: Ein langsamer Abstieg von einem Hoch (1900 - 1920, bzw.
1965 - 1982), dann ein steiler, spekulativer Anstieg (1920 - 1929,
heute: 1982 - 2000).
Darauf muss notwendig ein ähnlich tiefer Rückschlag erfolgen wie 1929 bis 1931.
Die kommende Aktien- und Geldkrise wird viel Kapital und auch viele Illusionen über den Kapitalismus zerstören.
Wal Buchenberg,
03.10.2000.
Schlimmste
Weltwirtschaftskrise seit 1929.
“The
recession may well be deeper and longer than expected Suppose
that the second-hand car you bought kept breaking down. Would you buy
another from the same dealer? The same question might apply to economic
forecasters. A year ago, most expected the American economy to grow by
3.5% in 2001. By early this year, they thought that a sharper slow-down,
but still a soft landing, was likely; even in early September, almost all
still ruled out a recession. Today, however, most believe that a
recession was already under way before September 11th. When these same
people confidently tell you that this recession will be short and mild -
indeed, that it will be one of the mildest in 50 years - why would you
believe them?
It is surely wishful thinking to hope that the
bursting of one of the biggest financial bubbles in history, combined with
the aftershocks from the most serious attack ever on America's soil, will
be followed by the mildest recession in history. That is not to suggest
that America will follow Japan with a decade of stagnation. America is in
a healthier state than Japan was at the start of the 1990S. Yet there are
good reasons to expect America 's recession to be deeper and
longer-lasting than most people now expect. One is the sheer
scale of investment and borrowing during the late 1990s. Another is the
unusually synchronised nature of this global slowdown, with economies
around the world sinking together. Indeed, it is possible that the
world economy as a whole may be about to suffer its deepest downturn since
the 1930s. …” Aus: The Economist, October 20th 2001.
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